Scarcity Index
50p “Scarcity Index” Launched – discover which UK 50p coins are the most collectable
Can’t wait – click here to reveal the UK’s “scarcest” 50p coin
Change Checker has launched the 50p “Scarcity Index”, which tracks which circulating 50p coins are the most scarce and collectable.
The index uses a unique combination of mintage, collecting and swap data to give the most up-to-date picture of today’s 50p coin collecting market.
The top 5
There’s no surprise to find Kew Gardens at the top of the list. With a mintage of just 210,000, it is also the least owned and most requested swap. The next 4 scarcest coins are all from the 2012 Olympics – Football, Triathlon, Judo and Wrestling.
The recent Beatrix Potter 50p coins also rank highly, with Jemima Puddle-Duck and Squirrel Nutkin coming in at numbers 6 and 7 – based largely on their low level of ownership and high swap requests, as official mintages are yet to be confirmed by the Royal Mint.
Click here to see the full list
How the Scarcity Index works
Generally collectors have had to rely upon mintage figures to identify the scarcest coins. But they only tell part of the story. Trying to find a good quality coin from 15 – 20 years ago, even for a higher mintage issue, is much more challenging than a more recent issue, as coins become damaged over time and are ultimately removed from circulation.
Additionally, some designs are more hoarded than others by people who might not normally collect coins – the Beatrix Potter issues being a classic example. Finally, it can be up to a couple of years before the Royal Mint eventually confirms the actual mintage for an issue.
That’s why we have combined the mintage information with two other key pieces of information.
- How many of each design are listed as “collected” by Change Checkers, indicating the relative ease of finding a particular coin.
- The number of times a design has been requested as a swap over the previous 3 months, showing the current level of collector demand.
Importantly, as new coins are released and popularity rises and falls across different designs the Scarcity Index will be updated quarterly allowing Change Checkers to track the relative performance of the UK’s circulation coins.
How much are my coins worth?
The Scarcity Index does not necessarily equate to value but it is certainly an effective indicator. Whilst Kew Gardens 50p coins command prices on eBay of between £70 and £100, other coins towards the top of the scarcity index typically achieve a premium of roughly 10 – 12 times face value.
But don’t forget the joy of Change Collecting is that you have always have a chance of finding any one of these coins in your change – even Kew Gardens – you just have to be sharp-eyed.
What about £1 and £2 Coins?
The £1 Scarcity Index has already been published for the round £1 coins and, because they are no longer being issued, this is now set in stone. Change Checker will be releasing the £2 Scarcity Index later in April.
Which Beatrix Potter 50p Coins are the scarcest?
With Monday’s announcement of four new Beatrix Potter 50p coins leading to as many as 50,000 collectors queuing at The Royal Mint’s website to reserve the coins online, Change Checker can reveal which of last year’s 5 Beatrix Potter circulation 50p coins are currently the most sought after by collectors.
Using data unique collecting and swap data, Change Checker will be publishing its first-ever 50p “Scarcity Index” later this month but ahead of the full publication, we can give you a sneak preview as to which of last year’s Beatrix Potter 50p coins are currently most sought after by collectors.
How rare are the Beatrix Potter 50p coins?
Final mintages are yet to be published but the Change Checker “Scarcity Index” scores each of the UK’s 54 circulation 50p coin designs out of 100 to determine their relative scarcity.
Results suggest that Jemima Puddle-Duck is currently the 6th most difficult coin to find in your change, with Squirrel Nutkin coming in close behind. Peter Rabbit has certainly become easier over the last few months but still sits 20th out 54 issues.
How valuable are my Beatrix Potter 50p coins?
Currently you can still buy base metal collector versions of the Beatrix Potter 50p coins direct from the Royal Mint for £10 and Change Checker Certified Brilliant Uncirculated versions for £3.99, rather than wait to find them in your change. That has meant that their values have been pretty much capped.
But The Royal Mint has confirmed that they are not striking any more 2016 collector editions, which means that when current stocks of the Brilliant Uncirculated version are exhausted, collectors’ only choice will be to search for circulation versions.
So whilst the 2016 Beatrix Potter 50p coins are not likely to follow the example of the ultra-rare Kew Gardens 50p, which achieves prices of between £70 and £100, collectors may see prices rise from around 6 times face value to somewhere between 10 and 12 times face value over the coming months.
But don’t forget, the joy of Change Checking is that you may receive a Beatrix Potter 50p coin in your change at any time for just its face value – 50p.
The £1 Scarcity Index reveals which £1 coins are the rarest
Can’t wait – click here to reveal the UK’s “scarcest” £1 coin
With the Great One Pound Coin Race nearing the finishing line, collectors across the UK are desperate to complete their Round Pound collections.
Historically, change collectors have relied upon mintage figures for their indication as to which coins in circulation are the rarest. But the story is not that simple.
650 million coins lost from circulation
The £1 coin has been in circulation since 1983. During that time a total of 2.2 billion £1 have been struck for circulation. But they are not all still in use.
There are 1.5 billion coins in circulation but probably fewer than 800,000 of the rarest design
The last available figures for coins in circulation, published by The Royal Mint for 2014, suggest that 1,553,000,000 £1 coins are in circulation.
In other words, 650 million of the coins struck no longer circulate, presumably withdrawn over the years as worn or damaged.
The majority of those 650 million coins are from the early issuing years, meaning that although some of those years may have high mintages, the actual number of coins available to collect from your change is far lower. In fact our research suggests that only a little more than half of the early years’ £1 coins are still in circulation. Far fewer if you’re trying to secure one in good collectable condition.
Scarcity breeds scarcity
But even that is only part of the story. Of course, scarcity breads scarcity.
Even before the launch of the Great One Pound Coin Race, we noticed a rise in collector interest for £1 coins on the back of the introduction of the new 12-sided £1 coin. And the demand is always disproportionately high for the more difficult coins. The result is a continued ratcheting up in demand for the rarer coins.
The Change Checker £1 Scarcity Index
That’s why Change Checker launched the £1 Scarcity Index. Rather just relying on mintage figures, we have combined them with the two critical points above – the actual numbers of coins in circulation and real collector demand, measured by Change Checker swap data – to create a unique Scarcity Index for the £1 Coin.
Scaled from 100 to 1, the scores represent the relative scarcity of each coin, with 100 being the most scarce.
So will I ever find the Edinburgh City £1 Coin in my change?
With a scarcity rating of 100, the Edinburgh City £1 Coin is the rarest Round £1 in circulation
With the Edinburgh City £1 Coin topping the Scarcity Index, will you ever actually find one in your change?
Well certainly it won’t be easy – but it’s definitely possible. Our calculations suggest there are probably somewhere between 600,000 – 800,000 Edinburgh City coins still in circulation but as we near the withdrawal date this number is decreasing rapidly. In other words, it is of similar rarity to the recently issued 2015 First World War Navy £2 but far less scarce than the rarest current circulation coin – Kew Gardens 50p, which had a mintage of just 210,000.
On average, it means that you will have to examine roughly 3,000 mixed £1 coins to find the Edinburgh City £1 Coin. But with over 6,000 Change Collectors already listing the Edinburgh City £1 Coin in their collection, it is certainly an achievable goal.